The “Islamic State” spread in the world: Analytics & Statistics During March 2024 Dr. Marwan Shehadeh

𝘼𝙗𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩 : 𝘿𝙧. 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙬𝙖𝙣 𝙎𝙝𝙚𝙝𝙖𝙙𝙚𝙝’𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙞𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙄𝙎𝙄𝙎’𝙨 𝙢𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙮 𝙤𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙨 𝙖 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙫𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙤𝙪𝙨 𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙨, 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙤𝙧𝙜𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣’𝙨 𝙢𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝙫𝙞𝙤𝙡𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙞𝙣 𝙈𝙤𝙨𝙘𝙤𝙬, 𝙍𝙪𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙖, 𝙤𝙣 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙘𝙝 22, 2024, 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙣 500 𝙙𝙚𝙖𝙙 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙨 𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙘𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘼𝙛𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙣 𝙘𝙤𝙖𝙨𝙩, 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 115 𝙥𝙚𝙤𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙠𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙤𝙧𝙜𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙘𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙙 𝙤𝙪𝙩 40 𝙢𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙮 𝙤𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙎𝙮𝙧𝙞𝙖, 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙣 85 𝙙𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙝𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 85 𝙞𝙣𝙟𝙪𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙨. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙡𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙣𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙨 𝙤𝙘𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝘼𝙡-𝙃𝙖𝙨𝙖𝙠𝙖𝙝, 𝘼𝙡-𝙆𝙝𝙖𝙞𝙧, 𝙃𝙤𝙢𝙨, 𝙃𝙖𝙢𝙖, 𝘿𝙚𝙞𝙧 𝙚𝙯-𝙕𝙤𝙧, 𝘼𝙡-𝘽𝙖𝙧𝙖𝙠𝙖, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙍𝙖𝙦𝙦𝙖. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙤𝙧𝙜𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙡𝙖𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙙 𝙖 𝙢𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙖 𝙘𝙖𝙢𝙥𝙖𝙞𝙜𝙣 𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙄𝙨𝙡𝙖𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙥𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝘼𝙛𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖, 𝘼𝙛𝙜𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙣, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙤𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙨, 𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙘𝙧𝙞𝙗𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙢 𝙖𝙨 𝙖𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙠𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙞𝙧 𝙢𝙚𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧𝙨. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙣𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙄𝙧𝙖𝙦 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙨𝙞𝙜𝙣𝙞𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙡𝙮, 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙣 951 𝙝𝙪𝙢𝙖𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨.

This analysis monitors the scale of military operations and the number of victims of attacks carried out by ISIS in a number of countries. The analysis process was based on the collection of statistical information published in Al-Naba’ weekly newspaper within one month, because it shows the extent of the security and military activity carried out by the organization in the cities and governorates of those countries. We limited our sample of the issues of Al-Naba’ weekly newspaper to five issues during the month of March. It starts with Issue No. (432) and ends with Issue No. (436).

We analyze the number of attacks and the limits of the organization’s spread in the world, within one month, and in a later step we will compare these numbers every four or six months, to monitor the organization’s status in terms of growing strength and spread, or the decline of its influence and power in the cities where it spreads.

It seems that the external operations of the “Islamic State” organization have begun to grow with its most violent attack since the beginning of this year on the “Krasno Gorsk” theater in the Russian capital, Moscow, where four people carried out a immersion operation in which machine guns, incendiary bombs and knives were used, last Friday, the 22nd. March, 2024.

The Moscow attack is the second of its kind after the attack in the Iranian city of Kerman, which targeted visitors to the shrine of the former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in an American raid in Iraq, and the Islamic State – Khorasan Province claimed responsibility for the attack at that time.

While Arab and foreign media circulated the news that Khorasan Province, the Islamic State’s branch in Afghanistan, was responsible for the Moscow attack, this news was not confirmed by the organization itself. Rather, the organization’s central leadership claimed responsibility for the attack, not Khorasan Province.

Perhaps the reason why the Khorasan Province branch was accused by some media outlets of being responsible for the attack is because the Caucasus Province, which announced its allegiance to ISIS in June 2015, and which only carried out one attack also targeting a theater at the time, has not been active since that time, that is, since About eight years in any work, whether media or military.

At the same time, the organization’s branch, known as Khorasan Province, was active in several regions located within the borders of what is called Khorasan, which for the organization includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and some Russian republics, such as: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Chechnya. Because some of its members joined from those countries, not to mention East Turkestan, most of them either merged with the organization with their groups or split from their groups and joined the organization.

The Russian government has accused Ukraine authorities of being behind the attack, despite the “Islamic State” organization claiming responsibility for the attack. This accusation falls within the context of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, meaning that it is being exploited medially and politically for Russia’s benefit.

It is noted from the table shown below, which includes numbers and statistics about the number of ISIS attacks, the victims who were killed and wounded as a result of them, the cities that were affected by these attacks, as well as the material losses associated with them.

The number of dead and wounded from the Krasno Gorsk theater attack ranked first in the table, reaching about 500 people, as the organization’s statistics indicate, and a large part of the buildings in which the theater was located was destroyed as a result of the fire ignited by the attackers.

Here we must point out that the organization sometimes intends to inflate the numbers by combining the number of dead with the wounded, some of whom may recover from their injuries. At the same time, some official media outlets in countries that are exposed to attacks tend to reduce the number of victims at the beginning of the attacks. Therefore, we publish the statistics published by the organization, taking this observation into account, because it is difficult to verify the accuracy of this information from a neutral party most of the time.

The attacks that targeted the cities of the African coast ranked second, with about (115) people killed and wounded, resulting from (11) attacks. It is also noted here that the number of victims of the attacks is large compared to the number of attacks. If this indicates, it indicates The attacks target civilian areas, not places where there are military personnel who have the ability to resist the attackers, and these are targets that can be described as soft.

Among the dead and wounded who fell as a result of the attacks by the branch of the Islamic State in Africa, in addition to the official forces of the Malian army and the mercenaries of the Russian Wagner Forces, were the fall of a number of members of the “Support for Islam and Muslims” group, where violent clashes took place between them in the city of “Gao.” Specifically in the villages of “Osadia” and “Zorani”, which are located west of Niger.

In third place in terms of the size of military operations; The organization carried out about (40) attacks, in the Levant Province – Syria -, which resulted in the death and injury of (85) people, as the city of Al-Hasakah – Al-Khair – witnessed the largest number of these attacks, amounting to (25) attacks, followed by the city of Homs, with (6). ) attacks, then the city of Hama with (5) attacks, two attacks in the city of Deir ez-Zor – Al-Baraka, and finally one attack in the city of Raqqa. The attacks that affected West Africa came in fourth place, with approximately (4) attacks, resulting in the killing of (75) people, followed in fifth place by (16) attacks, resulting in the killing of (74) people in Central Africa.

In the sixth order, the organization’s branch in Afghanistan carried out four attacks, in what is known as Khorasan Province, which resulted in the death and injury of (47) people, as a suicide bomber, “Muawiyah al-Banjshiri,” blew himself up in a gathering of Taliban employees while they were receiving their salaries in the city of “Muawiyah al-Banjshiri.” Kandahar, in the south of the country.

During last February, the organization launched a media campaign carrying targeted messages to legitimize its attacks that it will launch against other Islamic groups spread in Africa, Afghanistan, and other countries, which it describes as apostates, and permits the killing of their members, in preparation for the operations it will carry out against them in the future. This is clear with the two attacks, one of which targeted members of the Organization for the Support of Islam and Muslims in the Coast, and members of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan.

In seventh place, the number of attacks that affected Iraq increased, reaching (11) attacks, resulting in the death and injury of about (28) people. The number of attacks and victims increased significantly during the month of March in Iraq, distributed in Anbar (4) attacks, and northern Baghdad (3) attacks, two attacks in the Tigris, and one attack each in Salah al-Din and Kirkuk.

In eighth place were the attacks carried out by the organization in Mozambique, where they numbered (12) attacks, resulting in the death and injury of (25) people.

In ninth place, the organization carried out two attacks in East Asia, resulting in the killing of (8) people.

In the final order, the organization carried out one attack in Pakistan, resulting in the death of two people.

The following table shows statistics that include the number of attacks and their victims in countries and cities that witnessed military and security activity by the organization:

The table shows that the human and material losses, according to the infographic statistics published by Al-Naba newspaper in the five issues referred to above, resulted in the killing of (951) people, who were described as infidels, crusaders, apostates, and Shiites – and this number represents more than twice its size compared to last month.

The material losses amounted to (26) various military vehicles, (14) four-wheel drive vehicles, and the burning of (21) houses, as well as the burning of (21) military bases, and the destruction of (11) military armored vehicles.