Analysis of the spread of the “Islamic State” organization in the world During April 2024

• By Dr. Marwan Shehadeh :
• Abstract : The analysis of the spread of the Islamic State (ISIS) in April 2024 is based on statistical data from the weekly Al-Naba newspaper. The analysis focuses on the scale of military operations and the number of victims of ISIS attacks in various countries. The organization’s campaigns against Islamic groups and factions continue, with the West Africa State experiencing the highest number of attacks. The Levant Province in Syria and the coast also saw the highest number of attacks. The human and material losses resulted in the killing of 296 people, mostly infidels, crusaders, apostates, and Shiites. The organization’s position is unclear due to weak argument and proof.

Dr. Marwan Shehadeh

This analysis monitors the scale of military pomo operations and the number of victims of attacks carried out by ISIS in a number of countries. The analysis process was based on collecting statistical information published in the weekly Al-Naba newspaper within one month, because it shows the extent of the security and military activity carried out by the organization in the cities and governorates of those countries, and in most cases it is not possible for us to verify the accuracy of what the organization publishes in its military data.

But; It can be said that the statistics for the number of operations and the size of material and human losses are very close to being correct, and sometimes the numbers for material losses are inflated by the organization, and this is normal for armed groups, so it is possible to infer from these numbers the effectiveness of the organization and the limits of its spread in the world from those The indicators we count.

Here we must point out that the organization sometimes intends to inflate the numbers by combining the number of dead with the wounded, some of whom may recover from their injuries. At the same time, some official media outlets in countries that are exposed to attacks deliberately reduce the number of victims at the beginning of the attacks. Terrorist, therefore, we publish the statistics published by the organization, taking this observation into account, because it is difficult to verify the accuracy of this information from a neutral party most of the time.

We limited our sample of issues of Al-Naba’ weekly newspaper to four issues during the month of April, starting with Issue No. (437) and ending with Issue No. (440).

We analyze the number of attacks and the limits of the organization’s spread in the world, within one month, and in a later step we will compare these numbers every four or six months, to monitor the organization’s status in terms of growing strength and spread, or the decline of its influence and power in the cities where it spreads.

The organization’s campaigns against Islamic groups and factions continue. In this context, in issue (439) of Al-Naba’ newspaper, the organization published an infographic showing the scale

of its attacks against the Somali Al-Shabaab movement, over a period of about 45 days, which began at the beginning of March and ended on the tenth of April. It included the second phase of his campaign, which affected the movement in the regions of eastern Somalia, where statistics stated that he killed (50) members of the movement, and the organization took control of the entire “Miscade” mountain area, and that it seized large quantities of weapons, various ammunition, and military equipment.

His most prominent operations were in Somalia. The attack that targeted members of the movement in the Arabi area, in which about (16) members were killed and wounded, and an attack that targeted a major site near the village of “Jis Qayd,” in which about (15) members were killed and wounded.

We must point out that the Al-Shabaab movement confronts the organization fiercely, and does not forgive those who belong to the organization. Rather, it kills anyone if it is proven that he belongs to the organization and carries its ideas, whether during clashes between the two parties or during raids and arrests, and deals with them with the theory of eradication.

In issue (438) of Al-Naba newspaper, the organization published an infographic, in which it showed statistics on the extent of its ongoing operations against the Kurdish “PKK” elements, during only nine days, during which about 39 members and leaders were killed and wounded in three cities, namely Deir ez-Zor (Al-Khair). ), Al-Hasakah (Al-Baraka), and Aleppo. The operations took place in the town of Al-Tayana in the Dhiban region, and in the village of Al-Ashitah in the Maysara region, where headquarters, patrols, and vehicles were targeted.

It can be seen from the graph shown below, which includes numbers and statistics about the number of the organization’s attacks, the victims who were killed and wounded as a result of them, and the cities that were affected by those attacks, as well as the material losses associated with them. This graph reflects the extent of the organization’s spread in the world.

Violent attacks continue to affect several cities and villages on the African continent, as the number of such attacks in the so-called West Africa State reached about (48), leaving (82) dead and wounded, while the number of attacks in the Central Africa State reached about (34). An attack that resulted in (126) deaths, which is the highest number of victims of the organization’s attacks this month.

In the Levant Province – Syria – the number of attacks reached about (28) attacks, resulting in (66) deaths, the most violent of which were those that targeted the Syrian Democratic Forces in the city of Al-Hasakah – then the city of Deir ez-Zor.

On the coast, the number of attacks reached about (8), resulting in (24) deaths, as the organization is active in some cities adjacent to the border between Mali and Niger.

As for the attacks in Mozambique, there were (7) attacks, resulting in the killing of (5) people, and in Iraq, the number of attacks reached (6) attacks, resulting in the killing of (4) people, distributed in Salah al-Din, northern Baghdad, Tigris, and Kirkuk.

As for what is known as “Khorasan” Province, the number of attacks there reached (4), resulting in the death of (13) people.

In the state of East Asia, specifically in the Philippines, the number of attacks reached (2) attacks, resulting in the death of (6) people.

The following table shows statistics that include the number of attacks and their victims in countries and cities that witnessed military and security activity by the organization:

The table shows that the human and material losses, according to the info graphic statistics published by Al-Naba newspaper in the five issues referred to above, resulted in the killing of (296) people, who were described as infidels, crusaders, apostates, and Shiites – Shiites. This number represents approximately one-third of the number of victims of last month’s attacks, as witnessed Last month, the concert theater attack in Moscow, and the attacks targeting what the organization calls “crusaders,” most of whom are civilians in Africa.

The material losses amounted to (40) various military vehicles, (10) four-wheel drive vehicles, and the burning of (124) houses, as well as the burning of (8) military bases, and the destruction of (10) military armored vehicles.

When comparing the material losses with last March, we find that there is a clear increase in the number of these losses, specifically in Africa, especially the burning of houses, where it increased from the burning of (21) houses to (124) houses, that is, by six times.

Here we must emphasize: The issue of burning the homes of non-Muslim civilians is one of the serious issues that requires clarification, clarification, and issuing a fatwa from Muslim scholars, and that the organization’s position is ambiguous and not clear at all, because the pretexts it uses are weak in argument and proof.