𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐲𝐫𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞

𝐀𝐛𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭:

The Syrian revolution, which began in 2011, has shifted from peaceful protests to armed conflict due to the Assad family’s excessive force and brutal killings. However, “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” the heavyweight champion of armed factions, has managed local civil governance and filled the state-shaped hole in northern Syria. Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Muhammad al-Fateh al-Julani, has seized control of northern and northwestern Syria, severing ties with both the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda. The new Syrian state faces serious  challenges  ahead in reintegrating a nation that has suffered significant economic, political, and military changes.

Syria: Transition from Revolution to State

Dr. Marwan Shehadeh

December 8, 2024 was a historic day in the course of the Syrian revolution that began against the Assad family regime in 2011, and turned from peaceful to armed, due to the excessive expansion in the use of force to suppress demonstrators, the regime’s stubbornness in dialogue and making political reforms in the country, and the continued monopoly of the totalitarian dictatorial regime in practicing brutal killings using explosive barrels, and bringing in foreign powers to consolidate the pillars of its rule, which eventually fell.

Unexpectedly, “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”, the largest armed faction of the Syrian revolution, which was born from the womb of the Islamic and national revolution, took advantage and succeeded in unifying and merging several large and small factions to work under its umbrella, and it also succeeded in managing local civil governance to fill the void of the absence of the state in the liberated areas in northern Syria, amidst the complexities of the scene.

The armed factions of the Syrian revolution took control of most of the areas of northern and northwestern Syria, and took Idlib Governorate as the main headquarters for the administration of the rule of those areas, and presented a positive image of its ability to rule those areas, which witnessed security stability and an economic recovery that distinguished it from the rest of the Syrian governorates, which are controlled by the regime, and where looting, theft, kidnapping, killing and the spread of drugs are widespread.

The experience of ruling the liberated areas came after debates, disagreements and combat battles that resulted in the unification of the ranks of the opposition in the north, and moved with its experience to embody the first success of an armed group with an Islamic ideology in good governance.

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham went through multiple stages, and all the stages it went through were led by Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, who was nicknamed “Abu Muhammad al-Fateh al-Julani”, and he is the only leader who defected from the Islamic State organization after disagreement over the way to deal with the incubating environment in Syria, and his refusal to listen to al-Julani that this incubator is not like Iraq, and needs to be far from cruelty and violence in dealing to gain its affection and support, not to increase the violence and oppression that it has suffered from for decades.

Al-Jolani’s success in breaking ties with the Islamic State on the one hand, and Al-Qaeda on the other, came in studied stages. Then the organization began to witness political transformations that seemed more open to reality, and reached its state of becoming the strongest armed Islamic faction in the Syrian revolution, with a national identity, far from the cross-border movements and groups.

He called himself “Al-Fateh” early on, and it seems that the man was preparing to conquer Damascus, as the word “Al-Fateh” clearly indicates that his ambitions are great, and he has a calm and highly diplomatic personality in dealing with others. Ahmed Al-Sharaa belongs to the village of Jabin in the occupied Syrian Golan, and his father is Professor Hussein Al-Sharaa, who specialized in economics and worked in Saudi Arabia, and has several publications in this field, and his grandfather Sheikh Taleb Al-Sharaa was a member of the Quneitra District Council during the Ottoman era, so he carried his nickname “Al-Julani”.

One of the biggest challenges facing armed Islamic groups and unarmed reformists in general is the transition from revolutionary action to overthrow a regime to governing and managing the country, i.e. the transition from revolution to state, while the Syrian case has proven through the steps taken by al-Jolani day after day that he is a seasoned politician and that he is able to give an image and model of just civil rule away from the rule of the “religious state”, which does not necessarily mean that it will not be a conservative state based on the provisions of Islamic law like the rest of the contemporary states. The other challenge facing the new Syrian state is the acceptance of this state by the local, regional and international community, to devote itself to building and developing a country that has collapsed economically, politically and militarily, and which needs many years to rebuild and build a state of institutions. Accordingly, the factors that many players may contribute to the success or failure of this nascent state, because if attempts to cast doubt on this leadership or group continue, this portends Syria entering a new cycle of violence that prevents reaching the state of stability that the Syrian people seek.