The “Islamic State” spread analysis in the world During the month of December 2024

𝘼𝙗𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩:

In December 2024, Dr. Marwan Shehadeh conducted an investigation of the growth of the Islamic State (IS) and found that while the number of attacks and casualties was accurate, the material losses were occasionally overstated. The existence of relics of the previous Syrian regime in certain Syrian cities was also noted in the study; these could serve as a crucial point of discussion between the US and the new Syrian government. The new Syrian administration faces a military and security threat from sleeper cells. In places like Al-Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, and Raqqa, the IS has carried out 20 strikes, killing 27 people. The most brutal attacks have occurred in West Africa, where they have targeted armed militias as well as the armies of Nigeria and Cameroon.

The “Islamic State” spread analysis in the world

During the month of December 2024

Dr. Marwan Shehadeh

This analysis monitors the size of military operations and the number of victims of attacks carried out by the Islamic State organization in a number of countries; the analysis process was based on collecting statistical information published in the weekly Al-Naba newspaper during the month of December, and sometimes some of the press data published by the organization is analyzed over a period of more than a month, because it shows the size of the security and military activity carried out by the organization in the cities and governorates of those countries, and in most cases we are not able to verify the accuracy of what the organization publishes in its military statements.

However; it can be said that the statistics for the number of operations and the size of material and human losses are very close to the truth, and sometimes the numbers of material losses are exaggerated by the organization, and this is normal for armed groups, so it is possible to infer from these numbers the effectiveness of the organization and the limits of its spread in the world from those indicators that we count.

We limited our sample of the weekly Al-Naba newspaper to four issues during the month of December, starting with issue number (472) and ending with issue number (475).

The following table and chart show statistics including the number of attacks and their victims in the countries and cities that witnessed military and security activity by “IS”:

Statistical Analysis Report on Attacks, Deaths and Casualties by Region

This report presents data on attacks, deaths and injuries distributed across several regions and countries. The figures refer to geographical areas extending from the Middle East to Africa and Central Asia. Based on the given table, the figures will be analyzed, different regions will be compared in terms of number of attacks and casualties, and key observations will be drawn.

Some pockets within Syrian villages and cities are also witnessing intermittent clashes by remnants of the former Syrian regime, including military and security personnel who refuse to settle their status, hand over their weapons, and submit to trial after the fall of the Assad regime, especially those suspected of committing crimes against the Syrian people.

We cannot ignore the presence of some Syrian cities that are still under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which could be one of the most important axes of negotiations between the American side and the new government, in addition to the American presence in Syria, as well as the rest of the foreign forces, as “Al-Julani”, the head of the military operations room, stated that this presence needs an agreement and legalization.

As well as the fate of the prisons controlled by the “SDF”, especially the “Al-Hawl” and “Al-Mawj” camps, and the rest of the prisons in which families of women and children of ISIS members are detained, not to mention the “Ghuwayran” prison, located in the city of Hasakah, which is under the control of the “SDF” forces, and in which male ISIS members are detained. The presence of some sleeper cells of the “Islamic State” organization constitutes one of the security and military challenges in the next phase for the new Syrian government, which Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham had previously succeeded in eliminating the presence of this organization in the liberated Syrian areas in northern and northwestern Syria.Iraq did not witness any operational activity by the “Islamic State”, which is an indication that the organization has retreated and retreated in light of the security and military operations and pursuit, and its operations are concentrated in the areas located on the Iraqi-Syrian border, specifically on the Syrian side in the cities of Deir Ezzor and Hasaka, most of which are controlled by the “SDF” forces, and this situation may change with the control of the new Syrian government over Deir Ezzor.

Syria witnessed the most important event at the beginning of January, which is the fall of the Assad family regime on January 8, 2024, as the armed Syrian opposition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham succeeded in controlling most of the Syrian territories, except for some areas where foreign forces are present that are stationed in military bases, such as the Al-Tanf base affiliated with the US forces on the Iraqi-Syrian border, and the Hmeimim and Tripoli port bases where Russian forces are present.

The “Islamic State” organization has determined its hostile position towards the new Syrian government – despite the Islamists’ control over it – as it expressed this through the editorials of Al-Naba newspaper in issues (472) and (473), the first article was titled: “Free Syria and Assad’s Syria”, and the second was titled: “Domestication and recruitment”. The “Islamic State” organization is still targeting the “SDF” forces, as the organization carried out (20) attacks, resulting in the killing of (27) people, distributed in the following cities: Al-Hasakah (Al-Khair) with (12) attacks, which is the city most exposed to attacks targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and oil tankers in the region, followed by (7) attacks, carried out in the city of Deir ez-Zor (Al-Barakah), and one attack in the city of Raqqa in which one person from the “SDF” forces was killed. The pace of attacks in the Central African region has increased, ranking first in the number of victims and second in the number of attacks, as the organization carried out (24) violent attacks, resulting in the killing of (101) people, with the most violent areas in eastern Congo, in the “Beni” region, the “Lubero” and “Ituri” regions, and the “Bandulu” village.

While the West African region came in first place in terms of the number of attacks (29) attacks, resulting in the killing of (51) people, meaning it is the second in terms of the number of victims, and most of these attacks targeted the Nigerian and Cameroonian army and some armed militias loyal to the state, in the regions of “Borno”, “Adamawa”, and “Yobe”.

In a separate incident, the “IS” arrested two crews of the “International Committee of the Red Cross”, accusing them of cooperating with the Nigerian intelligence to lure one of the organization’s members, in the town of “Zari” in the “Borno” region, where they were killed after they confessed to spying for the intelligence, according to Al-Naba newspaper in issue No. (475), p. (4).

The “IS” carried out several attacks in Mozambique, where the organization carried out (9) attacks, resulting in the killing of (12) people. It is noted that the number of attacks and victims decreased compared to previous months. The attacks in the “Delgado” region targeted elements of the Mozambican army, as well as police stations and some Christian villages in the north of the country, and a group belonging to the armed group “Nabarama” that fights alongside government forces. The areas that witnessed military operations and attacks are: Cabo Delgado, Meluco. In the Sahel, ISIS elements attacked elements of the Malian army in the “Ansongo” region in “Gao” in northern Mali, and also attacked armed militias loyal to the government of Burkina Faso in the “Odlan” region in the north of the country, and militias loyal to the government of Niger in the “Tillaberi” region in western Niger.

The organization attacked a Somali police site in the “Dinili” area of ​​Mogadishu, where it used an explosive device during the attack, resulting in the death of a police officer and the injury of another.

The branch of the “Islamic State” in Khorasan did not change its method of carrying out its attacks, as it relied on qualitative security operations, which are based on direct assassinations using pistols, or suicide attacks by people rigged with explosive belts.

The “IS” carried out a suicide attack targeting the Minister of Refugees in the Taliban government, Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, in his office in the Afghan capital, Kabul, who was killed while leaving with some of his assistants and companions.

According to Al-Naba newspaper, the attack was carried out by Abu Othman al-Khorasani, who used an explosive belt that the organization had prepared to carry out the assassination.

Statistical report on the extent of human and material losses resulting from the operations of the “Islamic State” in the world:

The “IS” killed (276) people who it describes as apostates and infidels, and (126) crusaders, meaning non-Muslims. A slight increase in the losses resulting from the attacks carried out by the organization was noted, as it destroyed and damaged (51) vehicles, (23) various vehicles, (15) four-wheel drive vehicles, and (13) military armored vehicles. It also burned a military base, some churches, and (392) homes of Christians, who it targets on the grounds that they belong to the Christian militias that attack Muslims in the region.