๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ณ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ก ๐๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐? ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ซ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ค๐๐ฌ” ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ :
Dr. Marwan Shehadeh
The high-profile assassination of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, along with several of its top leaders and advisors last Friday, through an Israeli airstrike on a fortified underground headquarters in southern Beirut, has sparked widespread reactions.
This operation followed extensive Israeli intelligence efforts on the ground, utilizing advanced technologies. The assassination of Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff, Fuad Shukr, marked a turning point. Following that, around 5,000 Hezbollah members were targeted in the operation known as the โPagers Operation,โ which crippled communication networks. Additionally, a meeting of the elite “Al- Radwan Forces” was hit, culminating in the assassination of Nasrallah and his companions.
The common thread in these operations is that they occurred in Hezbollahโs most secure stronghold, the southern suburbs of Beirut. Other significant operations included the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, the military leader of Hamas responsible for operations in the West Bank.
Israelโs Longstanding Policy of Assassinations
Assassinations have been a key component of Israelโs military and security strategy since its establishment, targeting political and military figures involved in the resistance against the occupation. In Gaza and the West Bank, many individuals, both political and military, have fallen victim to Israelโs assassination campaigns. Israel also demolishes the homes of those responsible for attacks against it.
Hezbollah’s Security Lapses and Slow Response
Despite the assassination of its Chief of Staff, Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah failed to take serious precautionary measures. The group remained in a state of security laxity even after the “Pagers Operation,” which incapacitated around 5,000 of its fighters. Hezbollahโs response to Israel’s actions has been slow and confused, with limited retaliatory strikes.
Decision-making within Hezbollah regarding attacks on Israeli forces in the occupied Palestinian territories has been hesitant and delayed. This indecision comes amidst a series of Israeli military strikes targeting hundreds of Hezbollah rocket launchers, reducing the groupโs deterrence capability by an estimated 30%.
Iranian Influence on Hezbollahโs Military Strategy
The delay in Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes against Israel is partly due to Iran’s reluctance to escalate the conflict into a full-scale war, which could lead to widespread destruction in both Iran and Lebanon. Hezbollah, facing a military imbalance due to Israel’s superior technology and equipment, including a highly lethal air force, is likely avoiding direct confrontation. Instead, Hezbollah appears to be relying on a long-term war of attrition to weaken Israel.
The Pre-October 7 Preparations and Israelโs Preemptive Strikes
It seems that Israel’s preemptive strikes against Hamas were planned well in advance of the events of October 7. This theory is supported by Israel’s series of security and military strikes on Hezbollah, showing a disregard for past agreements and established rules of engagement. Israel has continuously sought to weaken Hezbollah and Iranโs allies in the region.
Israel’s Confidence in Its Superiority
The Israeli leadership is currently basking in its perceived superiority, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring Israel to be an “eternal state” in response to those who believe it is doomed to fail.
Hezbollah’s Future: Can It Recover?
Despite the severe security blows Hezbollah has suffered, it is unlikely that these strikes have permanently crippled the organization. Hezbollah will likely need a brief period to reorganize its military, security, and leadership structures, as it cannot afford to waste time amidst ongoing hostilities.
Key Factors for Hezbollahโs Recovery
Hezbollahโs ability to recover hinges on two critical factors:
As the days unfold, it remains to be seen whether Hezbollah can emerge from these challenges and maintain its standing in the face of continued Israeli aggression.