Spread Analysis of the “Islamic State” in the world During November 2024

Abstract:

Dr. Marwan Shehadeh’s statistical analysis of the spread of the Islamic State (IS) in various countries in November 2024 revealed that the organization’s statistics for operations and material and human losses are accurate, but sometimes material losses are exaggerated. The report showed that IS attacks, deaths, and casualties were distributed across various regions and countries. West Africa ranked first in attacks, followed by Mozambique and Central Africa. The organization also targeted Taliban forces and Pakistani army and police in border areas with Afghanistan. The organization’s footprints are evident in its consolidation of sectarian and religious conflict in fragile societies.

Article:

Marwan Shehadeh

This analysis monitors the size of military operations and the number of victims of attacks carried out by the Islamic State organization in a number of countries; the analysis process was based on collecting statistical information published in the weekly Al-Naba newspaper during the month of November, and sometimes some of the data journalism published by the organization is analyzed over a period of more than a month, because it shows the size of the security and military activity carried out by the organization in the cities and governorates of those countries, and in most cases we are not able to verify the accuracy of what the organization publishes in its military statements.

However; it can be said that the statistics for the number of operations and the size of material and human losses are very close to the truth, and sometimes the numbers of material losses are exaggerated by the organization, and this is normal for armed groups, so it is possible to infer from these numbers the effectiveness of the organization and the limits of its spread in the world from those indicators that we count.

Sometimes the information is mixed up, meaning that it is not accurate in the nature of the targeted party. For example, it was mentioned that two workers from the International Committee of the Red Cross were targeted, while in fact the targets were from another international humanitarian organization.

We limited our sample of the issues of the weekly Al-Naba newspaper to four issues during the month of November, starting with issue number (468) and ending with issue number (471).

The following table and chart show statistics that include the number of attacks and their victims in the countries and cities that witnessed military and security activity by the organization:

Statistical Analysis Report on Attacks, Deaths and Casualties by Region

This report presents data on attacks, deaths and injuries distributed across several regions and countries. The figures refer to geographical areas extending from the Middle East to Africa and Central Asia. Based on the given table, the figures will be analyzed, different regions will be compared in terms of number of attacks and casualties, and key observations will be drawn.

In Iraq, “IS” fighters attacked a joint patrol of the Iraqi army and Peshmerga forces in the city of Kirkuk, near the hills of Al-Ghara, which are located on the outskirts of the Suleiman Bek area, in Tuz Khurmatu. The joint patrol belongs to special forces formed by the Iraqi and Kurdish governments with the aim of controlling the security vacuum areas, which extend from Nineveh to Diyala. The two attacks carried out by the organization in Kirkuk and Salah al-Din resulted in the killing of eight people.

In Syria, the organization carried out (26) attacks, resulting in the killing of (38) people, distributed in the following cities: Al-Hasakah (Al-Khair) with (16) attacks, which is the city most exposed to attacks targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and oil tankers in the region, followed by (10) attacks, carried out in the city of Deir ez-Zor (Al-Barakah).

West Africa has been ranked first for more than a year in the number of attacks carried out by the organization, with the number of attacks reaching (45) attacks resulting in the killing of (150) people, most of the attacks targeting Nigerian forces and militias loyal to the army.

Mozambique comes in second place, where the organization carried out (18) attacks, resulting in the killing of (39) people.

Central Africa comes in third place in terms of the number of attacks, with the number reaching (8) attacks resulting in the killing of (20) people, as the number of attacks and their victims decreased from previous months.

In the Sahel, “IS” elements attacked elements of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims in Burkina Faso, killing nine of them, and in another attack targeting the Burkinabe army and some of its armed militias.

While “IS” carried out (5) attacks, resulting in the killing of (22) people in what is known as the Khorasan Province, which refers to Afghanistan and Pakistan, where it targets Taliban forces, as well as elements of the Pakistani army and police in the border areas with Afghanistan, it carried out one attack in the border areas, targeting the parties, “Jamaat-e-Islami” and “Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam”, where the Islamic State organization declares these two Islamic parties infidels because they believe in democracy and parliamentary work. The two attacks took place in the village of Anayat in the Bajaur region, and in the village of Azam Warsak, in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region, affiliated with Waziristan.

The most violent attack was carried out in Khorasan Province, where the organization targeted Taliban members and a group from the “Sayyid” sect, which belongs to the Sufi orders, while they were at the “Sayyid Agha” shrine in the town of Kahna in the Nahrain region, which is located southeast of Baghlan in eastern Afghanistan. Al-Naba newspaper published a photo of members of the Sayyid sect, and claimed that it was an exclusive photo, while the photo was published in a book by the American researcher Kenneth P. Lizzio, who wrote about Sufism in Afghanistan, and his book was titled “Embattled Saints: my year with the Sufie of Afghanistan”.

Statistical report on the extent of human and material losses resulting from the “Islamic State” attacks in the world:

The “IS’s” fingerprints are still clear in its consolidation of sectarian and religious conflict in fragile societies, as operations targeting the Shiite sect continue in Iraq and Syria. As for its targeting of non-Muslims, this is represented by its military activities targeting non-Muslims in Africa, where it killed what it describes as apostates and infidels (227) people, (62) Crusaders, and (12) Shiites.