Challenges and the Future of the Syrian Government!!!
𝘼𝙗𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩:
The tumble of the Assad dynasty in Syria has sparked a flurry of inquiries about how well the fresh-faced government put together by revolutionaries is faring. The Syrian regime has crumbled, failing in every possible way—economically, militarily, and in terms of security. With over ten million people displaced, the influx of non-Syrians has led to significant demographic changes. The new government has quite the juggling act ahead—keeping security in check, steering the country toward safety and stability, and kickstarting development operations. Talk about a tall order! The upcoming state promises to be a secular haven, keeping its distance from political meddling, mending fences with Israel, and tackling the intriguing conundrum of armed groups’ futures. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) find themselves at a crossroads: either they wave the white flag or take on the new government with all the flair of a dramatic showdown. Turkey is backing the new Syrian government, all in the name of its own security interests and a dash of influence in the Middle East. Quite the strategic move, isn’t it?
Dr. Marwan Shehadeh
Several questions have emerged with the resounding fall of the sectarian rule of the Assad family in Syria, circulated by the media and social networking sites, and bets and speculations about the success of the government that came to power from the womb of various armed factions; in maintaining security and moving the country to safety and stability, and starting development operations throughout the Syrian territory.
It is known that the Syrian regime has been living since the outbreak of the popular revolution in 2011, in a state of decline and Syria has become one of the fragile countries collapsing economically, militarily and security-wise, and it began to depend in its economy on Iranian aid in the first place, and the trade in Captagon that targeted Arab countries and some foreign countries that could reach it.
Accordingly; The legacy of the Syrian regime with the fall of Bashar al-Assad is great. More than ten million people were displaced, most of the areas whose residents had emigrated were destroyed, and the regime contributed to causing a demographic change in many towns and villages, by settling non-Syrians who came to defend the regime, especially members of the Shiite militias. Kidnappings and killings by gangs from within the security and military institutions increased, and corruption and the collapse of the Syrian pound became widespread.
This heavy legacy places the new government formed by the “revolutionaries” after the fall of Assad in front of great challenges, not to mention some military and security pockets where remnants of the regime from the security and military institutions are still present, who are stationed in some villages and cities, and refuse to surrender themselves, convinced that they will face trials for the crimes they committed against the Syrian people. Another challenge is the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces over an area of about 27% of Syria’s territory, in the northeastern part, while the Southern Operations Room controls 4% of Syria’s area, and the so-called eastern tribes or remnants of the “Eastern Lions” control an area estimated at 5% of Syrian territory in the south. All armed forces must dissolve themselves and integrate into the new state structure. This will be detailed in the context of answering the questions raised, which surfaced during the first weeks of the fall of the Assad regime: Will the new state be “secular”, meaning that religion will be separated from political rule? Will the new government normalize its relationship with “Israel”? What is the future of the armed groups – non-Syrian – that participated in the armed action against the Syrian regime and were present on Syrian territory since 2012, with the beginnings of the armed revolution, including, but not limited to, the “Guardians of Religion” organization and the “Turkistan Party”, which are the only two factions that remained present with the disappearance of the rest of the other small groups and parties. In addition to the question about the future of the American and Russian military and security presence in Syria, represented by military bases? And the international legitimacy of the new regime and the lifting of sanctions on Syria?
To reach answers to these questions, we contacted someone close to the new government, who preferred not to reveal his name. He explained that the rumors and counter-propaganda being spread by the media and social media aimed at distorting the image of the new government, weakening it and undermining it, are backed by Iran and the henchmen of the defunct regime. He also said that the model presented by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in local administration of the liberated areas was clearly non-secular and based on a contemporary, open vision of moderate Islamic rule in general, and did not resemble the Taliban model of rule – the hardline one – and that this matter is not strange to the conservative Syrian people in general, and no incident of establishing borders, such as cutting off the hand of a thief, was recorded in those liberated areas. Rather, the courts relied on Shafi’i jurisprudence in basing their judicial rulings. In this context, I would like to note that the organization faces a major challenge in providing the cadres working in various government service sectors, as well as for the elements of the security and military institutions, and this requires a period of time in the face of the challenges to regroup the ranks of the state and control the civil and military sides. Regarding the controversy that was raised with the statements of the Governor of Damascus, Maher Mohammed Marwan Idlibi, that they will normalize their relations with Israel, according to what was reported by the American newspaper, he denied this, and explained that he did not make such statements, and that he is not authorized to talk about such issues, but rather they are within the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and this was confirmed by the statements of officials in the new government, that they do not want any disputes with all neighboring countries, and they are focusing their efforts in the current and coming period on building Syria and returning the displaced.
Regarding the future of the non-Syrian Islamic groups that have an extension outside the borders of Syria, most notably the Guardians of Religion Organization and the East Turkestan Party, the call to dissolve all factions includes these two factions, especially since they are inactive organizations in the Syrian arena, after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham tightened its control over all the liberated areas in Idlib and its countryside, and unified the military operations room in those areas to prevent chaos and usurpation of power. Therefore, what is required of those factions is to dissolve themselves and integrate into the ranks of the Ministry of Defense. The new government has stated that it will grant citizenship to non-Syrians from the members of armed groups who have stayed in Syria for more than five years, and this applies to all armed groups. The new government rejects sectarian or regional quota operations, and here they mean the armed presence of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as it has two options: the first is to dissolve itself and merge into the new Syrian Ministry of Defense, or to confront the new government in the near future. It is noteworthy that some of the pockets controlled by the SDF are witnessing military confrontations in Aleppo and the countryside of Aleppo, especially in Manbij, and unless they reach an agreement, the future of the SDF will be to eliminate them with Turkish assistance, as the organization rejects dividing Syria in any way. It is clear that the American and Russian presence is proceeding according to two positions, it is likely that accepting the legalization of the American presence will be presented before the Russian presence, meaning that the new government may reject the Russian presence on its territory, unless it offers a lot in return for this presence, so Russia is striving to communicate with Turkey, the country supporting the new government, to maintain its presence on Syrian territory.
It has become clear that Turkey is one of the main countries supporting the new Syrian government, and this serves its security interests and influence in the Middle East. The fall of the Assad regime has helped to diminish Iranian influence in the region and contributed to eliminating the drug trade, which is what the rest of the neighboring countries that were troubled by the problem of drug and weapons smuggling operations benefit from. Therefore, Turkey is currently making serious efforts to lift sanctions on the new Syrian Republic and give it international legitimacy to contribute to its reconstruction and the return of its displaced people spread throughout the world. This serves to enhance the security and stability of the Middle East, and does not conflict with the interests of the United States of America, which has always been keen to reduce and weaken Iranian influence in the region, as the new government has presented this development on a golden platter to it. In my opinion, the steps taken by the Military Operations Department and the new Syrian government have proven that they have benefited from the mistakes of the experiences of various Arab and Islamic peoples, and that they are capable and prepared to make the required and necessary efforts and measures to preserve the unity of Syria, with its various sectarian, denominational and religious components, to build a modern civil state. If they succeed, this will help to spare Syria and the region a state of chaos with dire consequences.