Analysis of the “Islamic State” spread in the world

During February 2024

Dr. Marwan Shehadeh

This analysis monitors the scale of military operations and the number of victims of attacks carried out by ISIS in a number of countries. The analysis process was based on collecting information from Al-Naba’ weekly newspaper for one month – February-, because it shows the extent of the security and military activity carried out by the organization in the cities and governorates of those countries. We limited our sample to the issues of Al-Naba’ weekly newspaper from issue No. (428) to issue No. (431).

We analyze the number of attacks and the limits of the organization’s spread in the world, within one month, and in a later step we will compare these numbers every four or six months, to monitor the organization’s status in terms of growing strength and spread, or the decline of its influence and power in the cities where it spreads.

It seems that the attention and efforts of the “Islamic State” organization are directed towards the African continent, as it is active in countries that are likely to be failed states, and takes advantage of the state of chaos, the absence of a central state , and the weakness of the military and security institutions, and this is a characteristic of the majority of African countries.

The “IS’s” activities and effectiveness have begun to increase in the past three months in the Horn of Africa, especially in Somalia, which was accompanied by a systematic media campaign to legitimize the organization’s attacks against “Islamic” groups, factions, and organizations, led by Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabaab, as well as the Group to Support Islam and Muslims.

A statistical graph indicated the number of the organization’s military operations during ten months, extending from January 23, 2023, until November 15, 2023, the outcome of which led to the death and injury of more than 238 people belonging to the Somali Al- Shabaab Movement, which was described in the graph as a militia. The apostate Al-Shabaab.

As well as seizing large quantities of various weapons and ammunition, the organization claimed that it had regained control over vast areas that included more than ten villages, and was accused of internal disturbances in the movement and the flight of its members.

The “IS” is active in a number of villages, including Dere Madou, Daer Oden, Shibab, Tadar, Dasan, Mirali, Tadangli, and Bogo.

Al-Naba newspaper, in issue No. 428, asked a hypothetical question and answer about the fight between the “Islamic State” organization and what it called the Al-Qaeda militias fighting it, especially the Somali branch, and the way the organization dealt with the “Al-Shabaab”?

The answer was that the organization made efforts to avoid clashes with the elements of the movement, and accused them of seeking to confront it, and that the organization also continued to call them – for the truth – in multiple opportunities, and explained to them that the movement pledged allegiance to an apostate group, which is the Afghan Taliban, and that their banner is ignorant, and that Their repentance is more beloved to the organization’s soldiers than their fighting and killing.

This hostility is based on a misunderstanding and misinterpretation of the concept of general guardianship, which accompanied the organization’s declaration of the caliphate in 2014, and led to a “state” with an unknown imam who was defeated by the sword, that is, force, as if there was no enemy left to Islam except Islamic groups, factions, and organizations.

During the current month, Somalia witnessed one attack, which left (6) dead.

The number of attacks carried out by the organization in Iraq decreased during the month of February, as it carried out a single attack in Anbar and did not kill anyone, unlike last month, which witnessed the largest number of attacks in several governorates during the past three months.

This may indicate either the success of the efforts undertaken by the security services to pursue, arrest, and kill the organization’s members, and restrict its sleeper cells, or that the organization has begun to withdraw to other countries, which are likely to be Africa and Syria.

It was noted that the number of operations and material and human losses in Syria are still high, as the number of attacks reached (24) attacks that left (53) dead, distributed among the following cities: Al-Hasakah, the largest in the number of attacks, which amounted to (15) attacks, followed by Deir ez-Zor (4) attacks. Then Raqqa had two attacks, and Homs had three attacks.

The number of attacks also decreased to a quarter of the number of attacks last month, and approximately a third of the human losses, compared to last month. The attacks occurred in the same cities that witness security and military activity by the organization, namely Al-Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, Homs, and Raqqa.

The African continent is still the most visible in the organization’s activities, as the number of attacks in West Africa, specifically in Nigeria and Cameroon, reached (28) attacks, claiming the lives of (102) people. Although the number of attacks decreased by almost half, the number The number of victims approached the number last month, and this indicates that the majority of victims of attacks are civilians, not military personnel.

In the state of Central Africa, the number of attacks reached (7) attacks, with about (60) deaths. The number of these attacks decreased by a small percentage compared to last month, but these attacks left double the num

ber of dead victims, and it is clear that the majority of them were civilians, and the attacks occurred in the Congo.

The organization is still focusing its military and security activities on targets inside the Republic of Mozambique, which has been the most targeted during the past three months, as the number of attacks reached (16) attacks, in which (42) people were killed, and although the number of attacks decreased by three attacks compared to last month, However, the number of victims has doubled.

It is worth noting that the organization published statistics on the escalation in the frequency of its attacks in Mozambique, during (52) days, where the organization carried out (27) attacks, in which (70) soldiers and Christians were killed, and about (500) homes, churches, and government buildings were destroyed, and it also destroyed three Military barracks of the Mozambican army.

The most prominent operations carried out by the organization was the attack that targeted the Mozambican army, in the Mikovi region, in which (8) soldiers were killed, and four military vehicles were burned. It also targeted an army gathering in the village of Mokojo in the Macomia region, in which (22) soldiers were killed, and captured a quantity of weapons and ammunition, while he burned (5) churches and about (130) houses, in his attack on the villages of Mazizi and Nakuza, in the Shior region.

The attacks in Cabo Delgado were distributed in the following areas: Pemba, Macomia, Chior, Mecovi, and Mocimboa da Praia.

The attack resulted in a large wave of displacement of civilians in many villages, and major economic losses, as well as the cessation of some international companies from working in areas witnessing military attacks by the organization.

The organization carried out two attacks in the Sahel state, especially in Mali and Niger, in which 21 people were killed. This number is close to last month, as it is noted that the number of attacks is small, but they left a large number of deaths. They occurred during a clash with the Malian army and Wagner forces.

Several Pakistani cities witnessed four attacks by the Islamic State organization, resulting in 90 deaths. They targeted polling centers for the parliamentary elections, as the organization takes a strict ideological position

towards democracy and the elections and candidates related to it, as it declares every person who elects or nominates himself to be an infidel, and is considered councils. The legislation itself is contrary to Sharia law.

In Afghanistan, the organization carried out one attack, killing 4 people.

For a long time, the Republic of Turkey has not witnessed any attacks by the organization. It witnessed an attack against some Christians, killing one person and wounding another, in the Buyukdir area in the city of Istanbul. According to the organization, the attack came as part of a call from its leaders to target Christians and Jews everywhere.

The table shows that the human and material losses, according to the infographic statistics published by Al-Naba newspaper in the four issues referred to above, (402) people were killed in the attacks, and they were described as infidels, crusaders, apostates, and Shiite Shiites.

The material losses amounted to (23) various military vehicles, (11) four-wheel drive vehicles, and the burning of (177) houses, as well as the burning of (3) military bases, and the destruction of (3) military armored vehicles.

The organization claims in an editorial in Al-Naba newspaper in issue (431) that it is targeting Christian villages, in response to what the militias that it described as Christian are doing by targeting Muslim villages, killing them, and burning their homes, which is a punishment that the organization implements with the same aggression practiced by those militias in Africa.